Male member, occasional respondent Seattle here. I feel Japan is imposing too many restrictions on itself—what do you all think?
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The anti-LDP TV networks and media are attacking the government nonstop, but I don’t think Japan is doing that badly. The number of deaths is considerably lower than in Europe and the U.S., and basic infrastructure has been maintained.
Most cases are asymptomatic or mild, so another lockdown is completely unnecessary.
I don’t think the restrictions will be lifted after May 7 either, and if things continue like this, the unemployed will be everywhere. To prevent the healthcare system from collapsing, I think we should keep access to hospitals difficult, as it has been, and gradually lift the restrictions.
It’s a problem that payments under the employment adjustment subsidy are delayed. Rather than limiting support to just ¥100,000, I think the government should distribute money more freely as part of its economic stimulus measures, even if that means accepting some fraudulent claims. Even if they print more government bonds, after 30 years of deflation, surely inflation won’t happen that easily.
I can’t help thinking it would be faster to acquire herd immunity, like Brazil, and that we don’t need to restrict ourselves. Am I mistaken?
I’m bored like this, so I’d love to hear your opinions.
This is column writer Mac.
If you simply extrapolate the decline in new cases nationwide over the two weeks from April 10 to 24, the number of new cases should fall to single digits around May 20.
That would be about the same level as in early March, but the situation is improving. The reason is that more people have acquired immunity.
According to test results from New York, 14% of people had acquired immunity. That’s equivalent to having 14% contact restrictions in place without doing anything. If 80% of the population acquired immunity, it would have the same effect as restricting contact by 80%.
Right now, the media is urging people to refrain from going out even more in preparation for Golden Week. But once Golden Week is over, I expect restrictions to be gradually eased, starting with prefectures other than Tokyo, Osaka, and Fukuoka.
After that, I remain optimistic as ever: since Japan never imposed a strict lockdown, a certain degree of herd immunity has probably developed, and I think its economy will recover faster than those in Europe and the United States.
Things may drag on in Europe and the U.S. The reason is unclear, but there is an obvious difference between Asia and the West. While the death rate per million people is over 100 in the West—at least in the Northern Hemisphere—it is under five in Japan, China, and South Korea.
The difference between the Northern and Southern Hemispheres is also striking. Brazil’s president has chosen to do practically nothing, but even there the figure is only in the teens.
There are still two weeks until May 6. We’ve only just finished the first half. We’re witnessing an extremely fascinating social phenomenon, so I think it may be good for our mental health to observe it calmly—perhaps even with more interest than watching a soccer match.
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I’m the questioner, Seattle.
It looks like the state of emergency will continue beyond May 7.
By pandering to public opinion and wrecking the economy like this, they’ll never be able to lift the restrictions. I think it’s just like Japan in 1945.
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I’m Meg, one of the female members.
> If things continue like this, the number of unemployed people will surge. To prevent the healthcare system from collapsing, I think we should keep it difficult to visit hospitals, as before, and lift the restrictions gradually.
I agree.
When these stressful days drag on for this long,
you start wanting to escape from reality♪
It’s already been a month since I last saw my papa.
Lately, he’s even started appearing in my dreams.
I want to see you soooon.
God, please grant me some time to heal. m(_ _)m
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I’m Flagmaker, a columnist.
I have plenty of thoughts about COVID, but my wife’s values are absolute law in our household. So when she tells me, “Don’t go outside,” “Don’t see anyone,” or “Don’t go drinking,” I have no choice but to reply, “Yes, ma’am,” and obey.
After work, I’m treated like a walking germ. At the entrance, I’m sprayed all over with some strange disinfectant, take off my clothes there, wash my hands three times while naked, and can’t enter the house until I’ve taken a bath.
Still, when I think about the possibility—however slight—that I might catch COVID, pass it on to my wife, who has an underlying condition, and she could die, I feel that staying home is probably all I can do right now.
At times like this, I try not to overthink things. I simply consider what I can do to protect the people close to me and myself, and act accordingly.
For now, I spend every day holed up at home except for work, doing my best to keep my wife and kids happy. I believe the trust we’re building now will pay off once we’re free to go out again.
That said, after spending all day with the kids this weekend, I suddenly felt my consciousness fading and nearly passed out.
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I’m the questioner, Seattle, a male member. Thank you all for your various answers.
I believe that once the restrictions are lifted on May 7, even if infections rise a little again, it will ultimately be faster to build immunity.
If people are swayed by the media and the state of emergency is still in place in June, we’ll be flooded with bankruptcies and unemployment. Since we won’t have developed immunity, the second wave will turn into another pandemic, the Olympics a year from now will be canceled, and that’s the future I can see.
South Korea and Taiwan, which have managed to contain things through a sort of lockdown, are actually the ones at risk next.
I’m already living off my savings and am basically at the end of my working life, so I’d like to spend the rest of my years helping people who are struggling. I’ll hand out meals.
I’ve stopped traveling, but I still go to open restaurants fairly often. I realize that puts me in no position to complain if I die from COVID, and I have to be prepared for that. I tell the people I meet as much.
Even if we try to strengthen the medical system, there’s a limit to the number of medical workers willing to work in such high-risk conditions. There’s also a limit to the number of civil servants available to process loan applications.
I hope we can move even a little closer to a solution by raising salaries and simplifying the systems.
I want to remember to thank the people working at supermarkets and the delivery staff, take responsibility for my own actions within the limits of the risks I’m willing to accept, and live without inconveniencing others.
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I’m Basil, a male member.
I completely agree with Seattle’s opinion.
The media and that certain governor are making far too much of this. While testing is still not progressing, the low number of deaths suggests that the actual fatality rate is low. Compared with other infectious diseases, it also seems that the difference isn’t quite as significant as people make it out to be.
If the government is going to declare a state of emergency and prioritize infection prevention over the economy, then it should issue government bonds and distribute the money. The service industry is being devastated, and the effects look likely to linger for years. I think I’ll read up on the economic theory known as MMT. Any fraudulent claims can be investigated afterward.
Whatever we do, we can’t bring the numbers down to zero immediately. So, speaking as a layperson, I can’t help but feel that it would be effective to wait until herd immunity is achieved while maintaining a balance with the economy.
By the way, while 70% of my subordinates are working remotely, I go into the office every day. There’s been no major disruption to our work, and it feels like work-style reform has progressed without any preparation at all.
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I’m a male member who goes by “Paper Airplane.”
The medical system is reaching its limit dealing with infections stemming from crowded, poorly ventilated nightlife venues, and I imagine they’re absolutely furious by now. Without declaring a state of emergency, I don’t think the government can curb that kind of nightlife.
Some commentators say they’ve successfully flattened the peak, so in reality, I do think Japan is still in a much better position than the countries in Europe and North America.
P.S. About the media coverage:
Our COVID-relief loan was put into effect in early March. Since it was specifically for COVID-related support, the process was handled very quickly. If people had started the process by the end of February at the latest, they would have received the loan within March.
Yet once April began, the media started reporting stories blaming the government, saying people were running out of cash and that the loans were taking too long. In many cases, though, the people making all that noise were simply being negligent themselves.
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Maezawa from the Corporate Planning Office here.
At this point, I don’t think we can say whether the measures have gone too far.
It’s normal to realize only later that “we overreacted back then,” or that “our response at the time wasn’t nearly enough.”
For example, if this were a new virus weapon developed by some country, it would be a crisis threatening the survival of humanity.
In that case, we’d be racing to develop a vaccine, and if its completion were delayed, humanity could potentially face extinction.
In a sense, asking people to refrain from going out may simply be buying time for humanity to survive until a vaccine is ready.
(If it were a biological weapon, I imagine you’d almost certainly become infected by going outside.)
Of course, there’s no point in letting our imaginations run wild like this.
Still, if the state of emergency really lasts only one month, until May 6, we might somehow manage—but if it gets extended, things will become very difficult.
I hope this ends soon.
> The delay in paying employment adjustment subsidies is a problem.
That is a problem.
Rather than taking a month, the money needs to be transferred within about a week. Otherwise, companies without much financial cushion may start going bankrupt one after another.
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